Political ad spending for the 2024 election will be history’s most expensive.

For marketers, that means higher costs, less inventory, and less response.

And indeed, the political parties are already breaking spending records.

So far, the Democratic National Committee reported roughly $45.2 million on hand for the 2023-2024 election season… the RNC has reported roughly $21.6 million in its coffers… and both are ready for a historic battle.

Both parties focus all their attention and money on key swing states.

The Democrats are particularly focused on key Senate races to regain control of the U.S. Senate.

That means millions of political ad dollars will be poured into those campaigns like never before.

AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending, estimates a total of $10.2 billion in political ad spending for 2024—that’s 13% more than the record set in 2020.

They also expect that political ad spending this year will be broken down as follows:

  • $2.7 billion for the Presidential race
  • $2.1 billion for the Senate,
  • $1.7 billion for the House,
  • $361 million for governors’ races.

According to a Forbes report, $3.3 billion will also be spent on local and state office’s “down-ballot” candidate ad campaigns.

Across the 7 key Senate races, Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin Senate Democrats, working with the DNC (Democratic National Committee), are launching a $79 million advertising plan to hold onto their majority in the Senate.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s spending plan includes a media mix of TV, radio, and digital advertising.

In addition, Democratic super PACs are prepared to spend $239 million. Together with the DNC, these two organizations will spend over $300 million to defeat Republican senators.

“This enables the DSCC to communicate with voters in the most effective way and ensures we protect Democrats’ Senate majority,” said Christie Roberts, the DSCC’s executive director.

In swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the DNC will spend:

  • Over $11 million on ads to defend Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin
  • Over $8 million on ads to help Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania
  • Over $2 million in ads for Sen. Jon Tester in Montana
  • Over $200 million was already spent in Ohio on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown
  • Over $120 million for Montana’s Democratic incumbent, John Tester

“I expect $100 million to be poured into the Ohio Senate race as Brown tries to help Democrats cling to their 51-49 seat majority,” said Todd Belt, the director of George Washington University’s Political Management Program.

In addition to the money the DNC, the super PACS, and other Democrat fundraising machines have raised, Democrat Senate candidates have been outraising Republican candidates.

Here’s where each candidate stands in fundraising so far in the key swing states:

  • Arizona Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego raised over $9.6 million to Republican Kari Lake’s $2.5 million.
  • Florida Democrat raised $7.2 million to Republican incumbent Rick Scott’s $20.7 million
  • Montana Democrat Sen. Jon Tester (Incumbent) raised $12.6 million to Republican Tim Sheehy’s $1.9 million
  • Nevada Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen (Incumbent) raised $13.2 million to Republican Sam Brown’s $2.3 million
  • Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $15.8 million to Republican Bernie Moreno’s $2.1 million
  • Pennsylvania Democrat Sen. Bob Casey (Incumbent) raised $11.8 million to Republican Dave McCormick’s $2.6 million
  • Texas Democrat U.S. Rep. Colin Allred raised $10.4 million to Incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz’s $9.3 million.
  • Wisconsin Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) (Incumbent) raised $10.2 million to Republican Eric Hovde’s $5.3 million.

For the presidential election, Biden’s campaign reported $85.5 million in cash, and Trump’s campaign reported having $45.1 million.

According to AdImpact data, since Super Tuesday, Biden’s campaign and other Democratic advertisers have spent $27.2 million on presidential race advertising, while the Trump campaign and GOP advertisers spent roughly $9.3 million.

Digital political ad spending is expected to grow by 156.3% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the 28.7% growth in total political ad spending.

The money spent will require:

1) Avoiding advertising digital and TV/radio ads in September, October, and the first week in November.

2) Avoid direct mail from September 15th  – November 5th. Then, have mail hit the second week of November.

3) The worst states will be:

Maryland

West Virginia

New Jersey

Montana

Nevada

Utah

Arizona

Michigan

Wisconsin

Ohio

Pennslyvania

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