Key Takeaways:
- Political ad spending is already $1 billion ahead of the last midterm, rapidly increasing competition for attention and media inventory.
- Election advertisers bid aggressively without concern for efficiency, driving up costs and lowering response rates for marketers.
- Highly contested states and major media markets are becoming saturated, significantly distorting advertising performance.
- Rising political spending is increasing CPMs, tightening inventory, and reducing effectiveness across digital, CTV, email, and direct mail.
- Marketers must proactively shift budgets, monitor performance frequently, and avoid heavily impacted regions to protect ROI.
- Those who plan early and adapt strategically can outperform competitors who react too late to election-driven disruptions.
- $1 Billion Ahead of the Last Midterm
AdImpact data shows that through March, candidates and political organizations have already spent $2.74 billion.
That’s roughly $1 billion more than at the same point in the last midterm cycle.
This is not a slow ramp.
This is an acceleration.
And most marketers are not prepared.
Why This Matters to You
Political advertisers do not behave like commercial brands.
They don’t optimize for efficiency.
They optimize for winning.
They bid aggressively.
They crowd inventory.
They dominate attention.
And they don’t care what it does to your cost per lead or cost for sale.
- Some States Are Far Worse Than Others
Not every state is equally impacted.
But highly contested primary states?
They are already greatly distorted.
For example:
Texas – U.S. Senate Primary
More than $135 million has been spent.
And that doesn’t even include the May runoff for the Republicans.
That’s saturation of digital, YouTube, TV and more.
California – Governor’s Race
The Primary is in June.
Multiple candidates are running to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.
So far $114.7 million has been spent.
One candidate alone – Tom Steyer – has spent approximately $89.6 million.
This is already the most expensive non-presidential race in California history.
More than $40 million above comparable recent statewide midterm cycles.
When I was in California recently…
TV was dominated by political ads.
Digital was flooded with politician messages.
That level of saturation impacts every advertiser.
- Outside Money Is Fueling the Fire
It’s not just candidates.
Super PACs.
National committees.
Independent groups.
- Even Smaller States are Seeing Aggressive Spending
In Maine, millions have already been deployed in U.S. Senate spending to beat Senator Collins.
Outside groups have booked tens of millions more.
That’s a small market.
Those dollars destroy your ability to spend cost effectively.
And in Kentucky nearly $42.7 million in primary advertising around the Senate seat.
Nate Morris alone has seen $21.5 million in ad support.
Even “secondary” markets are absorbing major ad volume.
Look at Georgia and its Governor’s Race.
More than $86 million already in play.
The Atlanta market is heavily saturated.
And it’s only going to escalate.
- Major Advertising Markets are Already Distorted
- Washington, D.C. – $141 million
- Chicago – $97 million
- Los Angeles – $77 million
These markets are not just over saturated.
They’re structurally altered.
- Where the Money Is Going
Political allocation patterns show:
- 30% broadcast TV
- 25% digital
- 25% CTV
That means:
These channels are being affected… but so are podcasts, radio and more.
- Digital CPMs rise.
- CTV inventory tightens.
- Email attention drops.
Direct mail faces multiple pieces littering on the same day.
So, what should a marketer do? Here are things every marketer must do now:
You cannot “Business-as-usual” your way through this. Here is the disciplined strategy.
- Map Your Exposure by State
- Know where your leads originate.
- Know which states are in heavy primary cycles
- Know which markets are distorted.
- Data first.
- Emotion later.
- Identify the Most Competitive Election Markets
That’s when:
- Costs spike.
- Attention collapses.
- Efficiency deteriorates.
It’s when your ROI crashes.
- Reallocate Budget to Cleaner Markets
If California is distorted…
- Shift to Arizona.
- Shift to Nevada.
- Shift to unaffected regions.
Marketing money must move. It must be targeted.
- Protect Your Email & Direct Mail Response
Costs may not spike dramatically.
But attention drops.
Political Mail floods homes.
Political email floods inboxes.
Test lower frequency during peak noise windows.
- Monitor Cost Per Lead Weekly
Not monthly.
Weekly.
Election pressure builds quickly.
You must see it early.
- Plan Now – Not when It’s Obvious
By the time your CPL jumps 30%…
It’s too late.
Amateurs react.
Direct marketers are strategic.
The Bottom Line
- $1 billion ahead of the last midterm.
- $2.74 billion already spent.
- Highly contested states are distorting inventory costs and response.
And we’re still early.
If you ignore this…
Your ROI will suffer.
If you plan around it…
You can outperform competitors who don’t understand why their numbers are falling.
Action:
If you want help:
- Mapping primary exposure
- Building suppression calendars
- Protecting your cost per lead or sale
- Executing media shifts precisely
Call Michael at 615-933-4647 or email him at [email protected].
Our media team has navigated lection cycles for over 40 years.
We don’t guess.
We plan.
And we protect ROI while others lose efficiency.
FAQs:
Q: Why are marketing costs rising during the 2026 election cycle?
A: Political advertisers are spending aggressively and driving up competition for media inventory.
Q: Are all states equally affected by political ad spending?
A: No, highly contested states and major markets are experiencing the most severe cost and performance disruptions.
Q: How does political spending impact digital and traditional marketing channels?
A: It increases CPMs, tightens inventory, and reduces audience attention across channels.
Q: What should marketers do to protect their campaign performance?
A: They should shift budgets, monitor performance frequently, and avoid heavily saturated markets.
Q: Why is early planning critical during election cycles?
A: Because by the time costs spike significantly, it is often too late to recover performance.
About Craig Huey:
Craig Huey is President of Creative Direct Marketing Group (CDMGinc.com), a 30-year leader in direct response advertising and multi-channel marketing. Under his leadership, CDMG has:
- Tested more than 10,000 digital marketing variables.
- Mailed over 10 million pieces of direct mail in the last year alone.
- Won more than 120 awards for marketing excellence.
Craig is also the publisher of Direct Marketing Update, the trusted newsletter for company presidents and marketing directors looking to maximize ROI with cutting-edge, accountable advertising strategies.
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